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Tropical Storm NADINE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012
 
NADINE HAS A CLOUD FREE REGION NEAR THE CENTER IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IN THE SURROUNDING RING IS NOT
VERY DEEP.  THIS YIELDS DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT STILL SEEM TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF NADINE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT UW/CIMMS AMSU
AND ADT ESTIMATES.  NADINE CONTINUES TO INGEST SOME DRY AIR EVEN
THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE
MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS.  THESE FACTORS FAVOR
SOME STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTH IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS
LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST
ONLY CALLS FOR A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
 
NADINE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
250/5.  THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD IN A FEW DAYS...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE
PERIOD AS THE LARGE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN
THE TRACK PREDICTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY LARGE
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 31.9N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 31.2N  30.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 30.4N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 29.5N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 28.6N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 28.6N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 30.0N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 32.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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