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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012
 
BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF NADINE TODAY...AND THERE ARE SOME LOOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS.  
HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE WINDS THAT
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES.  THE MOST
CURRENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THE OCEANSAT-2 SATELLITE INDICATED
SIMILAR PEAK WINDS AS IN THE MORNING ASCAT PASS.  THEREFORE... THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING
IS UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING.  NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A LITTLE WARMER WATER AND
INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS VERTICAL SHEAR...SO MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR
AND THIS SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

NADINE APPEARS TO BE TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
280/6.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKING
NADINE ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS IT COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER MOTION NEAR THE END FORECAST PERIOD...THUS
THE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 31.7N  28.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 31.7N  29.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 31.4N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 30.7N  30.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 29.8N  30.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 28.7N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 29.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 30.0N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC