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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS THINNED A BIT THIS
MORNING...THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE
AND TROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
NADINE IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. DROPSONDE DATA
FROM AN ONGOING NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KT. A DROPWINDSONDE NEAR THE CENTER AROUND 1030
UTC MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 989.9 MB WITH STRONG WINDS...SO THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB.
 
NADINE DRIFTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED.  UNLIKE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT NADINE WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
NADINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME.  IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND NADINE SHOULD BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY  WARMER WATER BY THEN.  AS A RESULT...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY 48 HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS NADINE ATTAINING HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 30.6N  25.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 30.7N  26.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 31.0N  27.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 31.4N  28.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 31.5N  30.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 30.9N  31.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 30.5N  33.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 32.5N  36.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC