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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012
 
IT IS HARD TO SAY MUCH MORE ABOUT NADINE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CONTINUES AT 45 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH...PRELIMINARY DROPSONDE DATA FROM
THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE IS NOT BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AT THIS
TIME...AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS MORE TROPICAL NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
HAVING SAID THAT...NADINE IS STILL FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIVING THAT IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW.
 
AS ANTICIPATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORCING NADINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WILL STEER
NADINE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THEN...THE
TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE...AND NADINE WILL LIKELY
BECOME TRAPPED SOUTH OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE LONG
RANGE...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR
TUNES...AND WHEN THE GFS SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN...THE ECMWF SHOWS AN
EASTWARD MOTION...AND VICEVERSA. SINCE THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN
TONIGHT...THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO KEEP NADINE NEARLY STATIONARY
BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 36.8N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 36.2N  29.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 35.0N  27.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 33.5N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  22/0600Z 32.5N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/0600Z 32.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/0600Z 32.0N  25.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/0600Z 32.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC