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Tropical Storm NADINE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 17 2012
 
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. RECENT AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 63 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE 12Z TAFB CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS T3.5/55 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/13 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS NADINE IS INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED TO
ITS WEST. AFTER DAY 3...NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND
DROP SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE AZORES ON DAY 5. THE EXPECTED BINARY
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD RESULT IN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION...WITH NADINE POSSIBLY EVEN BECOMING STATIONARY AT TIMES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS TVCA AND THE HFIP MODEL TV15...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.
 
THE INTRUSIONS OF DRIER...STABLE AIR IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...
AS SUGGESTED BY A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...COOLER
SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND
SHOULD STEADILY TAKE THEIR TOLL...CAUSING NADINE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. BY 96 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
NORTH OF NADINE...COUPLED WITH SSTS COOLER THAN 22C...IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TRANSITIONING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
EXTRATROPICAL LOW...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND
ICON... WHICH ARE ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 32.9N  35.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 33.7N  34.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 34.7N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 35.9N  32.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 36.9N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 37.3N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 36.8N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1200Z 36.5N  28.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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