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Hurricane NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2012
 
THE STRUCTURE OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER BY ABOUT 30 N
MI...LIKELY DUE TO THE 30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES AND THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z UW-CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATE AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NADINE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD JUST A LITTLE...BUT STILL KEEPS NADINE AS A HURRICANE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 095/15...AS NADINE HAS MOVED A LITTLE
SOUTH OF DUE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 50W SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NADINE SOUTH OF DUE
EAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. NADINE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD A
DEEP-LAYER LOW NEAR THE AZORES. THIS LOW THEN MOVES EASTWARD AND
WEAKENS AS A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC. NADINE SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY DAY 4 AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST...A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND A SECOND RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTHWEST. BY DAY 5 ANOTHER MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH TO
THE NORTHEAST OF NADINE. THERE HAS BEEN LARGE RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY WITH THE INTERACTION OF NADINE AND THIS LOW. SOME
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN NADINE MERGING WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER EAST AND TURN NADINE
SOUTHWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...
GFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK SHOWS A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN
AT DAY 4 BUT INTRODUCES A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5. THIS
MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY AT THESE TIME RANGES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 30.6N  46.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 30.5N  43.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 30.9N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 31.8N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 33.0N  34.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 35.5N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 37.0N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 36.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC