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Hurricane MICHAEL


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HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
0500 UTC THU SEP 06 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  42.0W AT 06/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  42.0W AT 06/0500Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  42.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.8N  41.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 31.0N  41.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N  42.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.7N  43.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.0N  44.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  42.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
 
 
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