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Hurricane MICHAEL (Text)

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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. A
RATHER ASYMMETRIC SHAPE EXISTS...SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST
ORIENTATION...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED JUST IN THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE -60C CLOUD TOP CANOPY. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE
CYCLONE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN
INHIBITING COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER
WEAKENING AND CAUSE MICHAEL TO LOSE SUFFICIENT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERWARD...
MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE
LIFE-SPAN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE BRIEF...
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/11. A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS FROM THE NAVY FNMOC SATELLITE DATA TROPICAL CYCLONE
WEBPAGE PROVED TO BE BENEFICIAL IN DETERMINING THE 6-HOUR MOTION.
MICHAEL IS MOVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD MOVING
TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TOWARD THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 35.3N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 37.7N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 42.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  12/1200Z 47.2N  41.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/0000Z 52.2N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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