Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MICHAEL


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. A
RATHER ASYMMETRIC SHAPE EXISTS...SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST
ORIENTATION...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED JUST IN THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE -60C CLOUD TOP CANOPY. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE
CYCLONE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN
INHIBITING COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER
WEAKENING AND CAUSE MICHAEL TO LOSE SUFFICIENT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERWARD...
MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE
LIFE-SPAN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE BRIEF...
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/11. A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS FROM THE NAVY FNMOC SATELLITE DATA TROPICAL CYCLONE
WEBPAGE PROVED TO BE BENEFICIAL IN DETERMINING THE 6-HOUR MOTION.
MICHAEL IS MOVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD MOVING
TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TOWARD THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 35.3N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 37.7N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 42.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  12/1200Z 47.2N  41.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/0000Z 52.2N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:36 UTC