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Hurricane MICHAEL


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012
 
MICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
BEEN DECREASING.  BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL T-NUMBERS
HAVE COME DOWN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CI
NUMBER GIVEN BY THE UW-CIMSS ADT.  MICHAEL COULD FLUCTUATE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THEIR CURRENT STATES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
MICHAEL BY 48 HOURS...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE...FASTER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY DAY 4...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
IF THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS...OR THE COLD FRONT TRAILING LESLIE...AS SHOWN BY
THE ECMWF.
 
MICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED ITS MOTION OF 335/5 KT...BUT THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LOW-/MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IS INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TO THE WEST THAN IT HAS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS.  THIS SOLUTION
IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/TVCA CLUSTERING AT THOSE
TIMES.  THE MODELS COME BACK TO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 72 HOURS ONCE
MICHAEL IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH...EVEN THOUGH THAT IS A CASE WHERE YOU WOULD
NORMALLY EXPECT TO SEE BIGGER TIMING DIFFERENCES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 33.4N  42.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 33.8N  42.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 33.9N  43.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 34.1N  45.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 35.2N  46.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 42.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:36 UTC