Hurricane MICHAEL

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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012
 
THE WEAKENING TREND OF MICHAEL APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
AROUND THE EYE...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE
SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS A LITTLE WIDER THAN IT
WAS LAST NIGHT. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 90 KT...BUT MICHAEL COULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER.
 
MICHAEL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT. THE STEERING FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AT THE MOMENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
MICHAEL AND A PAIR OF CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MICHAEL AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH OR SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
MICHAEL MOVES OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND REMAINS IN GENERALLY LOW
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WATER TEMPERATURES
BENEATH THE CYCLONE LOWER AND THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...IN PART
DUE TO THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE LESLIE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY DUE TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF MICHAEL...BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MICHAEL COULD BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 31.0N  40.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 31.4N  41.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 31.8N  41.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 32.4N  42.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 33.0N  42.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 34.3N  44.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 38.0N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 45.5N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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