Hurricane MICHAEL

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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING OF THE EYE EVIDENT IN ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY.  A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ADT VALUE IS THE BASIS
FOR MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT.  THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BE EITHER DUE TO A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OR THE RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
LESLIE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.  OF COURSE...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW BOTH HURRICANES TRACK
WITH TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW. 
SUBSEQUENTLY...AN INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY...STILL EXISTS
BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE FROM A
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MORE RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SIDES WITH THE TVCA CONSENSUS...WHICH BASICALLY IS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 30.1N  41.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 30.6N  41.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 31.2N  41.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 31.9N  42.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 32.4N  42.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 33.4N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 35.2N  45.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 38.0N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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