Hurricane MICHAEL

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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

MICHAEL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE EYE BECOMING WARMER AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION STAYING STRONG. 
WHILE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WERE NEAR 90 KT AT 0600 UTC...OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM ADT AND THE GOES-R HIE PRODUCT HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
BETWEEN 107 AND 110 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVE AN INITIAL WIND
SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING MICHAEL THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE...
CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER...OF THE SEASON.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY BEFORE
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A TROUGH DROPPING TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE.  BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF COOLING SSTS
AND INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE COULD WEAKEN
MICHAEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
THE NEWEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE
IN THE LONG-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST OF THIS CYCLONE DUE TO IT
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF BOTH MICHAEL AND LESLIE.

THE HURRICANE APPEARS ON TRACK...MOVING 045/6.  A TURN TO THE NORTH
AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
MICHAEL BEGINS TO BE STEERED AROUND A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITHIN
48H AS TO WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE AND THE LOW...LIKE THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS...
OR IF THE RIDGE MISSES MICHAEL AND THE STORM CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
MORE LIKE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK WAS MADE AT DAY 5 TO COME CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
WITH MICHAEL BECOMING THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON EARLIER
TODAY...IT MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE SEVENTH
HURRICANE IN A YEAR...ONLY BEHIND 1886 AND 1893. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 29.6N  41.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 30.3N  41.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 30.9N  41.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 31.4N  41.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 32.0N  42.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 33.1N  43.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 34.5N  44.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 36.0N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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