ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012 MICHAEL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE BECOMING EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 90 KT...IN LINE WITH SPECIAL 0415 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BASED OFF OF THE ECMWF FIELDS. THE FORECAST IS THEN BLENDED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAY 5. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED...AND ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE REQUIRED THROUGH 36 H. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0500Z 29.4N 42.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:36 UTC