Tropical Storm MICHAEL

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012
 
A RECENT 1818 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM THE NRL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WEBSITE REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE 85
GHZ COMPOSITE AND MUCH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION.  THE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...HAS BECOME
A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED
BY A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60 KT BASED ON THE
WELL-DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
TODAY...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN OF
THE CYCLONE...BUT THIS COULD BE A TEMPORARY TREND. THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...INDICATE
THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN FURTHER BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.
THEREFORE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH DAY 5 AS THE WELL-
DEVELOPED OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LESLIE BEGINS TO
IMPEDE THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTFLOW OF MICHAEL. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AROUND 36-48 HOURS...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL SHOW MICHAEL RESPONDING TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH BY TURNING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...MICHAEL
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW ITS FORWARD
SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 28.8N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 29.3N  42.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 30.0N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 30.6N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 31.0N  41.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 32.1N  42.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 33.2N  44.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 34.8N  46.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
NNNN