Tropical Storm LESLIE

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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012
 
ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.5 AT
18Z...SINCE THEN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT AND THE
BANDING HAS BECOME LESS SOLID.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
50 KT.  LESLIE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...WHICH
SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  BOTH THE TROPICAL AND
GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT LESLIE WILL BE AT OR AT LEAST NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO NEWFOUNDLAND.  AFTER 36
HOURS...SSTS COOL AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY...BUT
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS. 
BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF FIELDS...LESLIE WILL BE MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-4
DAYS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  
 
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 33.4N  62.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 35.1N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 38.5N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 44.1N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 51.0N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1800Z 60.0N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1800Z 63.5N   9.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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