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Tropical Storm LESLIE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012
 
LESLIE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR HAS CAUSED
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH NEARLY ALL OF
THE COLD CLOUD TOPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS THIS CYCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING A LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX AND GIVEN THAT THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...LESLIE WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.
 
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF LESLIE WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. BLENDING THE MICROWAVE DATA WITH EARLIER SATELLITE FIXES
YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/7. LESLIE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...CAUSING THE STEERING CURRENTS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...LESLIE IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF LESLIE
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD
AT A FASTER PACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION.
 
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT
BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 24.4N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 25.2N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 25.8N  63.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 26.3N  63.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 26.8N  63.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 27.7N  63.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 29.0N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 31.5N  64.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:33 UTC