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Tropical Storm LESLIE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012
 
LESLIE CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE QUITE COLD...SUGGESTING VIGOROUS
DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AS
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB.  SINCE
THERE HAVE BEEN NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 50
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROHIBITIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
AFTERWARDS...DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

AN SSM/IS IMAGE FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS
LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE
WORKING BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  EVEN WITH THE
SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...
325/9...IS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...HOWEVER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  AS A
RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN FORECASTS AND THE ECMWF TRACK...WITH THE LATTER MODEL BEING
FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 23.4N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 24.4N  62.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 25.4N  62.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 26.0N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 26.6N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 27.5N  62.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 28.5N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 30.0N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:33 UTC