ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012 LESLIE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME WELL-SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WAS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER AND THEY HAVE LIKELY PASSED VERY CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY 41044 THIS MORNING. THE BUOY HAS REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 43-47 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OCCURRING IN THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 55 KT. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PLAGUING LESLIE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGER BETWEEN 24 AND 60 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO WEAKEN A LITTLE. DURING THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES BETTER IN EVOLVING SHEAR CONDITIONS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LESLIE WAS LOCATED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THAT IT HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING LESLIE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURNING IT NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BY-PASS LESLIE WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...PARTIALLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 21.3N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 23.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 24.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 25.5N 63.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.2N 63.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 28.3N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 29.5N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:33 UTC