ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012 KIRK HAS BEEN ACCELERATING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/28 KT. CONTINUED ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION. SINCE KIRK REMAINS ON TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS. A SMALL FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF KIRK DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH HAS HELPED KIRK TO CLING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT-LIVED RESPITE...AND WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-20C SSTS IN 6-12 HOURS. DEGENERATION INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 43.5N 39.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 47.4N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 03/0600Z 53.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:29 UTC