Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KIRK


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012
 
KIRK HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55-60
KT WERE RECEIVED FROM TAFB AND SAB. AS A RESULT...KIRK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. KIRK IS ON
TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST
AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH LIES ON TOP OF
THE NEARLY IDENTICAL TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS
OF MORE THAN 26C FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE
KIRK IS A SMALL SYSTEM...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INTERMITTENT
INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT CAN BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS
LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL
IV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 27.2N  49.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 28.4N  50.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 30.4N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 32.9N  49.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 42.2N  40.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 49.2N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:29 UTC