Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression JOYCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTANT FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINED INHIBITING
INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. BOTH TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN. INDEED...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...INDICATE THAT JOYCE
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.
HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...JOYCE COULD
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
DISCONTINUED. 

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM THE GOES-EAST
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT
OF THE MOTION OF JOYCE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT.  JOYCE
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH.  AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCA
CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 16.9N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 17.8N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 19.2N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 21.0N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 22.8N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 27.0N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 31.5N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 36.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:28 UTC