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Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012               
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       4      21      41      72      92      96
TROP DEPRESSION  4      35      50      52      28       8       4
TROPICAL STORM  90      59      29       7       X       X       X
HURRICANE        6       3       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        5       3       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 2        1       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    40KT    30KT    25KT    20KT    15KT    15KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PENSACOLA FL   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOBILE AL      34  7   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
STENNIS MS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BURAS LA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSON MS     34 22   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 87   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  3  14(17)   8(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC