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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 5 20 60 80 89
TROP DEPRESSION X 2 25 42 34 19 11
TROPICAL STORM 36 55 59 36 6 1 X
HURRICANE 64 44 11 3 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 59 38 9 2 X X X
HUR CAT 2 4 4 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 65KT 45KT 35KT 20KT 15KT 15KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST MARKS FL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
APALACHICOLA 34 10 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 10 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 16 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
COLUMBUS GA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 8 6(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
PENSACOLA FL 34 48 4(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 60 8(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
MOBILE AL 50 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GULFPORT MS 34 76 9(85) 1(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
GULFPORT MS 50 9 20(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
GULFPORT MS 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
STENNIS SC 34 79 12(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
STENNIS SC 50 10 37(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
STENNIS SC 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 50 71 17(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
BURAS LA 64 17 21(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 17 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
JACKSON MS 34 15 20(35) 7(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46)
JACKSON MS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 83 14(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 10 57(67) 4(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 1 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 61 7(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 57 29(86) 5(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 1 27(28) 14(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 41 31(72) 7(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 1 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 9 9(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 5 9(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GALVESTON TX 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12)
HOUSTON TX 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FREEPORT TX 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC