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Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       5      20      60      80      89
TROP DEPRESSION  X       2      25      42      34      19      11
TROPICAL STORM  36      55      59      36       6       1       X
HURRICANE       64      44      11       3       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       59      38       9       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 2        4       4       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        1       1       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    65KT    45KT    35KT    20KT    15KT    15KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 10   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 10   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 16   4(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  8   6(14)   1(15)   X(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 48   4(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34 60   8(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
MOBILE AL      50  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 76   9(85)   1(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
GULFPORT MS    50  9  20(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
STENNIS SC     34 79  12(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
STENNIS SC     50 10  37(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
STENNIS SC     64  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BURAS LA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BURAS LA       50 71  17(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
BURAS LA       64 17  21(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 17   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
JACKSON MS     34 15  20(35)   7(42)   3(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
JACKSON MS     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 83  14(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 10  57(67)   4(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  1  19(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 61   7(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  3   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34 57  29(86)   5(91)   X(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  1  27(28)  14(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34 41  31(72)   7(79)   X(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  1  13(14)  11(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  9   9(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  1   7( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  5   9(14)   8(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  3   4( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC