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Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012               
2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1      31      58      77
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       1       3      39      38      21
TROPICAL STORM  29      19      19      41      26       5       2
HURRICANE       71      81      81      56       4       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       64      56      50      40       3       X       X
HUR CAT 2        5      18      21      11       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        1       6       8       4       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       1       2       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    80KT    85KT    75KT    35KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MARCO ISLAND   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  6   5(11)   3(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  7   5(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 20   8(28)   3(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 35   5(40)   2(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 24  11(35)   4(39)   3(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  2   8(10)   7(17)   5(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 23  30(53)   8(61)   3(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 79   8(87)   1(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  6  13(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34 15  43(58)  16(74)   3(77)   2(79)   X(79)   X(79)
MOBILE AL      50  X   5( 5)  12(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
MOBILE AL      64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 17  55(72)  15(87)   3(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
GULFPORT MS    50  X  10(10)  30(40)   6(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
STENNIS SC     34 13  60(73)  17(90)   3(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)
STENNIS SC     50  X   9( 9)  42(51)   9(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
STENNIS SC     64  X   1( 1)  20(21)   7(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
BURAS LA       34 41  52(93)   4(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
BURAS LA       50  1  44(45)  29(74)   4(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
BURAS LA       64  X  13(13)  32(45)   2(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 87  12(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  5  59(64)   3(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  1  31(32)   2(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
JACKSON MS     34  1  12(13)  27(40)  19(59)   7(66)   X(66)   X(66)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
JACKSON MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 10  63(73)  20(93)   3(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   9( 9)  47(56)  10(66)   3(69)   X(69)   X(69)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   1( 1)  28(29)   9(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  9  39(48)  15(63)   4(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   5( 5)   8(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  4  38(42)  36(78)  11(89)   2(91)   X(91)   X(91)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   2( 2)  26(28)  18(46)   5(51)   X(51)   X(51)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  3  25(28)  36(64)  12(76)   3(79)   X(79)   X(79)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   1( 1)  14(15)  16(31)   4(35)   1(36)   X(36)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  1   6( 7)  12(19)   7(26)   3(29)   1(30)   X(30)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)  10(10)  11(21)  10(31)   1(32)   X(32)
SHREVEPORT LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   4( 4)  12(16)  11(27)   6(33)   X(33)   X(33)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
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