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Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012               
0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       1      13      32      61
TROP DEPRESSION  2       2       2       2      20      29      22
TROPICAL STORM  74      57      44      30      31      25       7
HURRICANE       25      41      53      67      36      13      10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       23      35      42      42      21       8       4
HUR CAT 2        1       4       8      17      10       3       3
HUR CAT 3        1       1       3       7       4       2       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       1       1       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    65KT    70KT    80KT    90KT    40KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   X(13)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   1(15)   1(16)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   3(17)   1(18)   1(19)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  3   9(12)   8(20)   2(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  8  15(23)   9(32)   3(35)   1(36)   1(37)   X(37)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 10  13(23)   5(28)   2(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 10  13(23)   6(29)   1(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 23  11(34)   4(38)   1(39)   X(39)   1(40)   X(40)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 44   9(53)   2(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
MIAMI FL       34 73   6(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
MIAMI FL       50  4   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MARATHON FL    34 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
MARATHON FL    50 39  32(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
MARATHON FL    64  4   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 80  14(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
KEY WEST FL    50 12  41(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
KEY WEST FL    64  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34 65  23(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
MARCO ISLAND   50  1  34(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 43  31(74)   4(78)   1(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)
FT MYERS FL    50  X  17(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34 22  42(64)  12(76)   1(77)   1(78)   X(78)   1(79)
VENICE FL      50  X   9( 9)  11(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
VENICE FL      64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  9  28(37)  17(54)   3(57)   3(60)   X(60)   1(61)
TAMPA FL       50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1  15(16)  20(36)   9(45)   4(49)   2(51)   X(51)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  17(35)  12(47)   3(50)   1(51)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   4( 4)  18(22)  16(38)  12(50)   3(53)   X(53)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   6( 6)  24(30)  28(58)  11(69)   2(71)   X(71)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   9(24)   1(25)   1(26)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X  10(10)  37(47)  24(71)   7(78)   1(79)   X(79)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  21(28)   7(35)   1(36)   1(37)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   3( 3)  22(25)  30(55)  16(71)   2(73)   1(74)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  15(29)   2(31)   1(32)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  13(23)   7(30)   1(31)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  20(33)  10(43)   1(44)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
MONTGOMERY AL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)  10(10)  32(42)  31(73)   5(78)   X(78)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  28(34)   5(39)   1(40)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   3(18)   X(18)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   3( 3)  24(27)  43(70)  17(87)   2(89)   X(89)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)  23(55)   2(57)   1(58)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  17(29)   2(31)   1(32)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  24(29)  35(64)   8(72)   1(73)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   8(33)   1(34)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)  34(58)  10(68)   1(69)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   7(28)   2(30)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  33(51)  10(61)   1(62)
STENNIS SC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   6(22)   1(23)
STENNIS SC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)  31(54)   7(61)   1(62)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   6(26)   1(27)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  26(34)  20(54)   5(59)   1(60)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   X(23)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  13(32)   1(33)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  28(41)   9(50)   1(51)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   1(17)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  14(22)   6(28)   2(30)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)   9(34)   2(36)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   7(23)   2(25)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   2(12)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34 32   4(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ANDROS         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
HAVANA         34  6  20(26)   3(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34 25   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   1(29)
 
CAMAGUEY       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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