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Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 25 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       5      19      57
TROP DEPRESSION  5       4       5       3      10      14      26
TROPICAL STORM  83      69      56      38      32      49      11
HURRICANE       12      26      38      57      53      18       7
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       11      23      32      39      31      13       3
HUR CAT 2        1       3       5      13      14       3       2
HUR CAT 3        X       1       2       5       6       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    60KT    65KT    75KT    85KT    55KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   3(17)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  10(17)   5(22)   2(24)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
MAYPORT NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  11(20)   5(25)   2(27)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   8(18)   7(25)   3(28)   1(29)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   6( 6)  12(18)   9(27)   7(34)   2(36)   1(37)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   8( 8)  10(18)   6(24)   5(29)   2(31)   1(32)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   8( 8)  10(18)   6(24)   5(29)   2(31)   1(32)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X  14(14)  11(25)   4(29)   4(33)   1(34)   1(35)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  2  26(28)  11(39)   3(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  5  49(54)  10(64)   1(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)
MIAMI FL       50  X   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARATHON FL    34  5  75(80)   9(89)   X(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)
MARATHON FL    50  X  24(24)  28(52)   X(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)
MARATHON FL    64  X   5( 5)  10(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  2  58(60)  20(80)   2(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
KEY WEST FL    50  X  10(10)  35(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  1  39(40)  35(75)   4(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   2( 2)  23(25)   5(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1  23(24)  37(61)   7(68)   2(70)   1(71)   X(71)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X  11(11)  38(49)  18(67)   5(72)   X(72)   X(72)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   6( 6)  20(26)  23(49)   9(58)   2(60)   1(61)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  21(32)  20(52)   4(56)   1(57)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   1(14)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  33(47)   9(56)   1(57)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   1(17)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  35(51)   8(59)   1(60)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)   1(20)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)  43(65)   8(73)   1(74)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   7(36)   1(37)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  30(37)  39(76)   4(80)   1(81)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  35(40)   5(45)   1(46)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   3(22)   1(23)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  47(63)  11(74)   1(75)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)  11(37)   1(38)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)   1(15)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  15(30)   3(33)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  19(37)   2(39)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  37(44)  20(64)   1(65)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)   2(30)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  47(64)  10(74)   X(74)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)  10(39)   1(40)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   6(20)   1(21)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)  19(49)   2(51)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  15(37)   2(39)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  13(31)   1(32)
STENNIS SC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
STENNIS SC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  11(31)   1(32)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  21(26)   8(34)   1(35)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  10(22)   1(23)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   1(14)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  5  17(22)   4(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 34  11(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 
ANDROS         34 69   5(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ANDROS         50  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 67   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34 17   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HAVANA         34  1   7( 8)  14(22)   4(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  3   9(12)   4(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
CAMAGUEY       34 23   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC