Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012               
1500 UTC THU AUG 23 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       1       3       5       6      11      18
TROP DEPRESSION 16      10      14      15      18      14      12
TROPICAL STORM  82      77      49      61      58      47      37
HURRICANE        2      12      34      20      19      29      33
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2      10      28      16      16      22      22
HUR CAT 2        X       1       5       3       2       4       9
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       1       2       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    50KT    65KT    55KT    55KT    65KT    75KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  11(19)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   8(20)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   7(25)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)   6(33)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  25(31)   7(38)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  26(31)   8(39)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)  11(34)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  13(31)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  17(30)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  15(24)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   4(21)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  10(23)   1(24)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   9(31)   1(32)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   2(23)   1(24)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)   5(29)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   2(19)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  15(31)   1(32)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  39(43)   2(45)   1(46)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  36(46)  14(60)   X(60)   X(60)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   8(19)   X(19)   X(19)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   1(13)   X(13)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   2( 2)  39(41)  19(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  15(24)   X(24)   1(25)   X(25)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   9( 9)  57(66)   7(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)  25(25)   7(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  1  37(38)  38(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   3( 3)  31(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X  10(10)  21(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2  44(46)  12(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE          34 20   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
SAN JUAN       34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC