Tropical Storm ISAAC

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
 
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM ISAAC TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.3N 91.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF BATON ROUGE
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER OR
NEAR THE COAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS ISAAC MOVES INLAND. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...PRIMARILY OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED IN MANDEVILLE LOUISIANA.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE...LIFE-THREATENING
HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING ARE STILL OCCURRING.
 
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
 
* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...5 TO 10 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT
* ALABAMA...2 TO 4 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
 
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 6 FEET IS STILL OCCURRING AT WAVELAND
MISSISSIPPI AND A SURGE OF 6 FEET HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED AT A
NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT NEW CANAL STATION ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
 
RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
LOWLAND FLOODING.
  
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
 
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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