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Hurricane GORDON (Text)

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012
 
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND IS QUITE DISTINCT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR GORDON
TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AND THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASED SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS
SHOW GORDON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/16...AS GORDON IS BEING STEERED
EASTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES GORDON AND THE LARGER DEEP-LAYER LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THIS CYCLE...
AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW
NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

GIVEN THE NEW INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF
PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AZORES AT THIS TIME. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 34.1N  38.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 34.3N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 35.0N  31.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 36.1N  27.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 37.4N  24.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 38.5N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1200Z 38.5N  16.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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