Tropical Storm GORDON

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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAVE FORMED AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH INDICATES
THAT GORDON IS STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T3.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5 FROM SAB...AND T2.7 ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. GIVEN
THE MID-LEVEL BANDED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN A 16/1143 UTC SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 45-KT TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

GORDON IS RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
045/14 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
EAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND BE NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... 
SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT
LEAST 27C LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. BY 48
HOURS...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
SHARPLY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO PUT A BRAKE ON THE
STRENGTHENING PROCESS. AS GORDON APPROACHES THE AZORES IN 4 DAYS...
THE SYSTEM COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRANSITION INTO A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL...IV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 33.3N  53.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 34.3N  51.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 34.9N  48.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 34.9N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 34.8N  40.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 35.6N  32.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 37.9N  25.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/1200Z 40.4N  19.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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