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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression SEVEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       2       3       4       7      10      14
TROP DEPRESSION 33      23      17      20      23      24      26
TROPICAL STORM  64      69      69      62      57      54      49
HURRICANE        1       5      11      14      14      12      11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       5       9      12      12      10       9
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       2       2       2       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       1       X       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    45KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   3(18)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   2(17)   X(17)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   X(23)   X(23)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)   1(31)   X(31)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  21(35)   X(35)   X(35)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  15(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  12(26)   X(26)   X(26)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
BARBADOS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BARBADOS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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