Tropical Depression SEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012

THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IT IS
UNCLEAR IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS DUE TO THE RAPID
WESTWARD MOTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A
30 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A RAPID 275/21.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED
BY THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
ENCOUNTER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION NEAR THE
48 HR POINT.
 
GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 14.0N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 14.2N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 14.4N  63.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 14.6N  67.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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