ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 500 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012 LOW CLOUD MOTIONS FROM ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO WARRANT THE DESIGNATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041...WHICH THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS THE LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOREOVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 17 KT. AN EVEN FASTER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 13.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 13.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 13.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 13.5N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 13.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 14.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 16.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:20 UTC