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Tropical Storm FLORENCE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012
 
FLORENCE HAD BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A WHILE UNTIL A
BURST OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE MASS OF SAHARAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH THE
EFFECTS OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...
HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR FLORENCE TO MAINTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB.
 
EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO WARMER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT.  WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER FLORENCE AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLING FOR FLORENCE TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.  THIS FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS...THE LATTER
OF WHICH FORECAST DISSIPATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BEING DISCOUNTED...SHOWS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
FLORENCE MOVING QUICKLY ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OF FLORENCE SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...LYING CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 16.2N  37.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 16.3N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 16.7N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 17.3N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 18.1N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 19.9N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z 22.0N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z 25.0N  67.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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