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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
500 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012
 
THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST TO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THIS CHANGE IN STRUCTURE IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
MODERATE SOUTHEASTELY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRUCTURAL
CHANGES...DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS BEFORE...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT.
 
FLORENCE COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS. THE DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-R PROVING
GROUND SHOWS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND GFS AND ECMWF MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR BY TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN SHEAR.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 13
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT FLORENCE
WILL BEND TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE NHC
FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST
OF THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS UP TO THIS POINT.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 16.6N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 16.8N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.1N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 17.5N  41.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 18.0N  44.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 19.3N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 21.5N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:19 UTC