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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       X       1       3       9      19
TROP DEPRESSION  3       5       4       4       7      13      22
TROPICAL STORM  90      75      52      44      43      38      45
HURRICANE        7      20      44      52      48      40      14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      17      37      37      33      27      12
HUR CAT 2        1       2       5      10      11       9       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       2       4       4       3       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       1       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    55KT    65KT    70KT    75KT    80KT    60KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  15(24)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  23(34)   8(42)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   5(24)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)  11(31)   2(33)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   2(16)   X(16)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  16(26)   5(31)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   7(20)   1(21)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)  14(32)   2(34)   1(35)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   4( 4)  15(19)   4(23)   1(24)   1(25)   X(25)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X  10(10)  18(28)   2(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  2   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
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