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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       2       3       7      12
TROP DEPRESSION  3       5       9       9       9      10      19
TROPICAL STORM  90      75      68      59      54      42      49
HURRICANE        7      20      22      31      34      41      20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      17      18      24      25      29      17
HUR CAT 2        1       2       3       5       6       8       2
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       2       4       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    55KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    75KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  11(30)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   4(20)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CURACAO        34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   8(27)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  13(21)   4(25)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   9(36)   2(38)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  12(29)   2(31)   X(31)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PONCE          34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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