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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       2       2       3       5       9
TROP DEPRESSION  6       9      14      12       8       9       7
TROPICAL STORM  90      78      70      63      53      41      44
HURRICANE        4      12      14      23      36      45      41
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4      11      12      19      27      32      28
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       3       6       9      10
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       2       4       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    50KT    55KT    65KT    75KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   8(24)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   5(18)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
CURACAO        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   9(25)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   5(23)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  11(30)   4(34)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  19(27)   3(30)   1(31)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  14(33)   2(35)   X(35)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PONCE          34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
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