Hurricane ERNESTO

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HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE
CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR HONDURAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  86.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  86.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  85.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.4N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.7N  90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.8N  92.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.8N  94.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.5N  97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  86.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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