Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND
WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  83.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  83.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  83.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N  85.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.3N  90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.4N  92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.3N  96.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N  99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  83.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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