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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO
PUNTA CASTILLA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  74.8W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  74.8W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  73.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.3N  77.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  80SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.6N  80.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N  82.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.6N  83.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N  87.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N  91.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 21.6N  94.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N  74.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:13 UTC