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Tropical Storm ERNESTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  70.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  45SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  70.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  69.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N  72.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N  76.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.5N  87.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N  90.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  70.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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