ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1500 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 68.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 68.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 67.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.8N 71.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 77.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 90.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:13 UTC