Hurricane ERNESTO

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HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
TECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTED A RECON FLIGHT FROM INVESTIGATING ERNESTO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IMAGERY FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE THE
HURRICANE HAD A WELL-DEFINED 15-NMI DIAMETER EYE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...BUT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT
BASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

RADAR FIXES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD...OR 270/13 KT. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLANDS OF MEXICO...AND
WILL MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN YUCATAN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN ERNESTO TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 48 HOURS AS
IT NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURS...
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE
HIGH MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL
OCCURS. ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OVER YUCATAN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION BEFORE
IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 18-24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE ONE OF THE DRIVING MECHANISMS IN THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...
WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
CURRENT AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ERNESTO.
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.

34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON
WIND REPORTS FROM THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AND NOAA BUOY 42056.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 18.7N  87.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER BANCO CHINCHORRO
 12H  08/1200Z 19.1N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
 24H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  09/1200Z 19.4N  94.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 19.2N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 18.7N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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