Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 989 MB...BUT
SO FAR THE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST SOME EXPANSION OF THE INNER WIND FIELD...WHICH MAY
PARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING.  CIRRUS
MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN
OVER THE STORM.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT UP TO LANDFALL...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE
PRIOR TO REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODEL
PREDICTIONS.
 
CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 290/12.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST ARE REQUIRED.  ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
WESTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 4-5 DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 18.1N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 18.6N  86.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 19.0N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  09/1200Z 19.4N  93.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:17 UTC