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Tropical Depression BERYL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
 
BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE  
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THAT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41008 AND SHIP KCDK.
 
AS EXPECTED...THE DEPRESSION IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS BERYL PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...
THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER LOW MOVING MORE EASTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND
IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS THE ECMWF MODEL BY CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO IS FOR BERYL TO BECOME THE PRIMARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
AFTER BERYL EXITS THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BERYL WILL
BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 32.2N  81.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 33.1N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  31/0000Z 34.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 36.5N  71.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 37.7N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/0000Z 40.0N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:08 UTC