Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression BERYL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
 
WHILE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS INLAND...THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN ADDITION TO
WELL-DEFINED BANDING AS OBSERVED BY THE WSR-88D RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  PEAK WINDS IN THIS SYSTEM...NEAR 25 KT...HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTS
AS MEASURED BY SOME WEATHERFLOW WEATHER STATIONS.
 
BERYL IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/3.  AS A VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE...BERYL WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT A DAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL.
 
AS LONG AS IT MAINTAINS ITS DEEP CONVECTION...BERYL IS ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHILE IT IS
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BERYL SHOULD BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. THERE
IS A NARROW SWATH OF WARM OCEAN WITHIN THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN THE
COOL SHELF WATERS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BERYL
HAS ABOUT A DAY OF TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM WHILE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MODERATE TO ALLOW SOME REINTENSIFICATION BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO A BLEND
OF THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. ABSORPTION OF BERYL INTO A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS INDICATED AFTER FOUR DAYS CONSISTENT WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
BERYL MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT VORTEX AND REMAIN INTACT LONGER.
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 30.8N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/1200Z 31.3N  83.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0000Z 32.1N  81.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1200Z 33.2N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/0000Z 34.6N  76.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  01/0000Z 37.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/0000Z 40.0N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:07 UTC