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Subtropical Storm BERYL (Text)

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SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
 
THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPOSED ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION REMAIN SUBTROPICAL 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 40 KT. BERYL IS
STILL ENTANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR
THE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITH
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK
OVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
 
OVERNIGHT THE CENTER OF BERYL HAS SLOWED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 255/04. AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BERYL SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND TURN WESTWARD AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
COAST ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS THE NHC TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE NEW TVCA MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND BERYL WILL MOVE AND HOW QUICKLY
IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO
BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH BERYL WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND...AS A SHALLOWER WEAKER CYCLONE WILL NOT BE PICKED UP AS
QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW
MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...MORE WEAKENING...AND ARE SLOWEST WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF DOES NOT
MOVE BERYL AS FAR INLAND...MAINTAINS A DEEPER CYCLONE...AND
ACCELERATES IT NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN
THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 0226
UTC ASCAT PASS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 32.3N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 31.8N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 31.0N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 30.6N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 30.6N  81.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/0600Z 31.0N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  31/0600Z 34.5N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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